【摘要】 考虑了气候系统中一些变量突变时对预测关系的改变作用，用多元门限回归模型的建模方法建立长江下游地区夏季旱涝趋势预测模型。拟合效果较理想，用1994～1995年的独立资料检验，预测结果与实况较为接近。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the fact that the predictor and predictand will change when some variateschange ahruptly in the climatic system, a multivariate threshold regression model for sum-mer flood/drought in the Lower ChangJiang valley is developed. The model is satisfactory.An independent sample of 1994 - 1995 is tested. The test results show .that precipitationprediction is close to the actual precipitation,更多还原