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关于溃变理论在湖北省春季短期强对流天气预报中的应用

THE APPLICATION OF THE BLOWN-UP THEORY TO THE SHORT-RANGE SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER FORECASTING IN SPRING IN HUBEI PROVINCE

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【作者】 彭春华施望芝何志学张昕王丽李昊

【Author】 Peng Chunhua; Shi Wangzhi; He Zhixue; Zhang Xin; Wang Li; Li Hao (Wuhan Reginal Meteorological Center, Wuhan 430074)

【机构】 武汉中心气象台

【摘要】 依据溃变理论将非均匀信息在突发性、强烈天气过程预报中进行了应用.使用不连续参数把湖北省春季发生的强天气过程(如暴雨、强对流)划定出来,再结合强对流预报判据分辨出强对流天气,用于湖北省春季短期强对流天气预报.其效果经过了1995.03.15~1995.05.15连续试验的检验

【Abstract】 The nonhomogenous information is applied to the sudden and severe weather processes in this paper. According to the blown-up theory, clarifying the severe weather processes (such as torrential rain and severe convection) first by using the nonhomogenous parameters in spring in Hubei Province, and then combining with the severe convective forecasting criterion, the severe convective weather processes are distinguished and the short-range severe convective weather is forecasted by this theory in spring in Hubei Province. Throush practical application from March 15th to May 15th in 1995, it shows that the forecast accuracy is satisfactory.

【关键词】 强对流溃变预报春季短期
【Key words】 severe convectionblown-upforecastspringshort-range
【基金】 中国气象局“短平快”科研基金
  • 【文献出处】 华中师范大学学报(自然科学版) ,JOURNAL OF CENTRAL CHINA NORMAL UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCES) , 编辑部邮箱 ,1996年01期
  • 【分类号】P456
  • 【被引频次】6
  • 【下载频次】56
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