【摘要】 在分析传统时间序列平滑预测方法的基础上，提出了期望值预测方法，讨论了该法在数据列为线性及二次曲线时的误差界，并应用此法进行了江苏省淋病疫情预报，结果令人满意．更多还原

【Abstract】 On the basis of the analysis of the conventional moving average method of time series, the paper proposes a method for expected value prediction and discusses the error bounds of linear and quadratic curves. Finally, the method is used to predict the epidemic situation of the lymphatic disease in Jiangsu Province. The results are reliable.更多还原