【摘要】 根据地质构造情况、历史地震活动特征及主震后一天、三天记录的余震资料，利用自然类比法对１９９５年１０月２４日云南武定６．５级地震序列类型和震后趋势进行早期综合判断，认为该序列为强余震极多型地震序列，发生更大地震的可能性不大，但余震颇度会很高，强余震次数极多，持续时间较长，一个月内４级以上强余震数可能在７９次左右，最大余震为Ｍｓ５．３级左右。早期判断结果与实际情况基本相符。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the geological structure and active characteristics of the historical earthquakes, by using natural analogism method, the authors draw the following conclusion from aftershock data by recorded during 1 day and 3 days after the main shock. The seismic sequence of Wuding earthquake who occured on Oct. 24, 1995 in Yunnan is a most-strong-aftershock one, the pessibility of occuring another be earthquake is not much, but there are many aftershocks The frequency of strong aftershocks is very high , and the Sequence will continue for a long time . The numberoOf aftershocksfor M≥4 is about to be 79 during one month after the main shock, and the maximum one will be Ms 5. 3. The judgement above agress with the fact.更多还原