【摘要】 通过对黄河中下游棉区棉铃虫（ＨｅｌｉｃｏｖｅｒｐａａｒｍｉｇｅｒａＨｕｂｎｅｒ）暴发宏观诸因子的分析。重点讨论：（１）具主导意义的宏观气候因子的作用，明确了旱涝变化与棉铃虫的消长有一致的趋势，由此做出了棉铃虫暴发适宜气候年的宏观趋势估计，与１９９３年前后的实际大发生吻合。（２）棉铃虫暴发的内在因子作用，即对环境因子的适应性反应，如抗药性增强、多食性危害加剧等。（３）人为因子的重要作用。（４）综合治理方面，强调了系统治理的观点，系统预测预报，技术、行政和物资管理的统一，以及综合效益治理等策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper discusses the macro tactors of the outbreek of cotton boll-warm,Helicaverpa armigera.at lower reaches of Yellow River.It cmphasizes the maxroclimatic tactors which play the main role and manitesteq the coordination of changes ofdrought and flood and the dynamics of bollworm populations.Forecast ing on t he trendof adaptable climate of bollworm outbreaks is identical with the actual events around.e.g.reactionto envirenmental factors such as increase of resistance to drugs and injury due to poly-hgia and so forth.Human factors ant its importance are also discussed.For integratedcontrol,systemic management,systemic forecasting.coordination of tactics,administra-tive and materialic handling and strategy on gains of integtrated management werestressed.更多还原