【摘要】 利用灰色系统理论，将回采工作面周期来压视为灾变，仿线性ＧＭ（１，１）预测模型建模机理，本文建立了包括线性模型在内的统一非线性ＧＭ（１，１）预报模型。利用非线性模型特例Ｖｅｒｈｕｌｓｔ模型和线性模型分别对两个不同矿山条件老顶周期来压步距进行预测，结果表明，不同的地质条件将适合不同的预测模型，不能简单一概用线性模型进行预测。对于地质条件发生灾变的情形可建立激励预测模型对周期来压步距进行预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using grey system theory, periodic weighting in coal mine face is regarded as a catastrophe. Following building mechanism of linear GM (1, 1) forecasting model, a non-linear GM(1,1) forecasting model in constructed in this paper. Usinga special case of non-linear model, the Verhulst model and linear model, the periodic weighting lengths under two different coal mine conditions are forecasted. The results show that for different geological conditions, different forecasting models may be used and no a single linear model can simply forecast. For situation of geological conditions approriat to a sudden change occurring, excitative forecasting model can be constructed to forecast periodic weighting length and other pressure parameters.更多还原