【摘要】 采用时间序列法（ＡＲＭＡ）对电力系统进行短期负荷预报，着重研究了负荷样本伪数据的处理以及如何建立从自动搜索定阶到节假日预报一整套的程序化模型，所编制程序在ＨＰ４８６ＰＣ机上获得通过。采用负荷数据为上海某供电局１９９５年５月份小时负荷报表，预报结果的日平均误差为１％～３％，最大误差不超过５％。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper adopts the time series approach (ARMA) to forecast short-term load of power system. It mainly deals with the bad data and builds a program for the model which can automatically search for the order and forecasl holidays’ load. The program has been passed on the compulcr of HP486/PC. We have used the hour-load data table in May. 1996 provided by a power system department in Shanghai. According to the approaches of this paper. the results show that the mean error is 1%￣3% per day and the maximum error of hour-load is less than 5%.更多还原