【摘要】 利用1970～1994年华北地区仪器记录到的地震目录,通过层次模型,将该地区分为不同大小的单元。在每个单元中,由小震活动情况,通过G-R关系得到较大地震的活动情况;并根据震级和烈度之间的关系,得到未来50a不同地震烈度的发生概率。文中还将所得结果与历史地震活动情况以及第三代区划图进行对比研究。结果表明,由近代小震活动对地震危险性进行评估是可能的。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, the North China area is divided into cells of different size according to hierarchy model using instrument-recording small earthquake data(1970- 1994). In each cell, the annual occurrence probability of larger magnitude earthquakes can be obtained from the annual probability of small magnitude earthquakes by G-R relationship. The seismic intensity probability within 50 years can be got from the relation between magnitude and intensity. We also made some comparison study with historical earthquake activity and with the new zoning map of china. The result shows that it is possible to estimate seismic hazard from modern small earthquake activity.更多还原