【摘要】 为害蚕豆的主要蚜种Aphis craccivora Koch、Acyrthosiphon pisum（Harris）、Megoura japantca Matsumura,在蚕豆生长的季节,其发生发展具有明显的阶段性,即迁入定居、数量波动、扩散蔓延及消退4个阶段。数量动态预测模型:A_t=B(multiply from i=1 to 1（V_i）的核心变量“单位时间增长率（V_i）”基本包涵了种群数量经典估计方程:P=P₀{[R（1-d）]ⁿ（1-m）}中{[R（1-d）]ⁿ（1-m）}项的内容。因V_i及有蚜枝率、百枝蚜量、温湿系数均不是正态分布,且误差悬殊较大,不宜采用线性回归分析,故先按预定标准将温湿系数（X_e）、有蚜枝率（X_a）、百枝蚜量（X_b）的定量数据转化为定性数据,再用定性因子回归分析建立V_i的估计方程,并加田块类型、品种布局、天敌作用3个矫正项: （?）_t=[b₀+sum from i=1 to 4(b_e,iX_e,i)+sum from j=1 to 5（b_jX_i）]+C₁+C₂+C₃更多还原

【Abstract】 In the growing season of broad bean, the broad bean aphids , mainly the cowpea aphid Aphis craccivora Koch , Japanese vicia aphid Megoura japonica Matsumura and pea aphid Acyrthosiphon pisum (Harris), undergo four distinct periods, namely, immigration-colonization, quantitative fluctuation, dispersion and reduction. In the prediction model of population dynamics :the core variance "Vi"increase rate in unit time" has basically embodied the {[R(1- d)]n ( 1 - m) } , main part of the classical population estimation equation P = Pn { [R(1 - d)]n(1 - m)}. Due to all the Vi, infected branch rate, aphid number/100 branches and humidi-ty-temperate coefficient not belong to normal distribution, it is inappropriate to adopt linear regression method for analysis , otherwise the error would be significantly enlarged. Consequently, the data of humidity-temperature coefficient Xe , infected branch rate X, and aphid number/100 branches Xb were then be converted from quantitative to qualitative, before the estimative equation of Vi was developed by regression analysis with qualitative factors , and three emendatory terms , i. e. field types C1 , distribution of varieties C2 and control effect of natural enemies C3 , were added. The integrated equation was as follows :更多还原