【摘要】 本文应用多元回归、灰色系统理论和马尔科夫链等数学方法对广东省封开县马尾松毛虫发生面积进行预测．气象因子有：本年中的全年日照时数、7月和10月的日照时数；上一年中的10．11月平均相对湿度和4．7月的日照时数．总种植面积也与发生面积有关，更多还原

【Abstract】 This article prescnted the mathematical medels for predicting the outbreak area of Masson pine caterpillar in Fengkai County, Guangdong Province. These models were constructed by using muitiregression, Markov chain and grey system methods.The meteorolgical factors influencing the outbreak area are mean sunshine time of the year,July and October (same year) and mean relative humidity of November and October and the sunshine time of July and April(previous year). The total area of previous year is also related to the outbreak area.更多还原