【摘要】 利用长期进行的癌症发病登记报告资料进行了系统动态分析，根据癌症发病率时间序列变化趋势，建立灰色系统理论模型，进而对北京地区２００１年癌症发病趋势做出预测。分析结果表明：到２００１年北京地区癌症发病率呈逐年升高的趋势，从１９９１～２００１年全部恶性肿瘤世界标化发病率将从１６２．５／１０万上升到１７９．９／１０万。不同部位恶性肿瘤的构成比将发生很大变化，肺癌和女性乳腺癌将出现迅速升高，肝癌、肠癌发病率亦呈上升趋势，食管癌、宫颈癌发病率持续下降，胃癌开始出现下降趋势。这些癌情变化信息为北京市癌症预防与控制研究提供科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 ata from a long-term cancer morbidity registry and notification system were analyzed dynamical-ly.A theoretical model of grey system was established based on time-series changes in cancer morbidities to predict its trend by the year of 2001 in Beijiing. Results show cancer morbidities in Beijing will in-crease yearly from 1991 to 2001, and overall morbidity rate of malignant tumor will increase to 179. 9/100 000 from 162. 5/100 000. Proportions of malignanttu tnmor in different sites will change greatly. Mnrbidities of lung cancper and breast caner will increase rapidiy, of liver and colon-rectal cancer shoes pn increasing trend,too,of esophageal and cervical cancer will decline steadily,and of stomach cancer wlil begin to decline. All these facts laid a scientific basis for the study on cancer prevention and control.更多还原