【摘要】 船体梁静水剪力、弯矩等是由装载状态决定的载荷效应。营运船舶装载记录表明，实际装载状态具有不确定性，由此导致载荷效应发生变异，其统计特性可利用回归公式或随机模拟原理进行估算或预报。通过对油船、散货船、滚装船及集装箱船约2000种随机工况所作的统计分析，表明其静水弯矩等随装载偏差的变化近似于正态分布律，并具有比船体中剖面模数或钢材屈服极限更为显著的变异性。在船舶结构可靠性分析或理性设计中，合理估算并预报这种及异性是必要的。更多还原

【Abstract】 The real loading conditions of ship in operation are indeterminate, and these induce hull girder still water load effects to be stochastic in nature. The prediction method of a computer-based stochastic modeling is presented and a statistical analysis is preformed with SWBM data from abour 2000 random loading conditions of oil tankers, bulk carrier,ro/ro vessel and containership. The results show that the change of SWBM is close to the normal distribution, and it has a more obvious variation than hull section modulus or yielding limit of steel. It is necessary to estimate and predict the variation in modern design or reliability analysis of ship structure.更多还原