【摘要】 本文根据城市道路特点，建立路面使用性能动态预测模型和自适应递推算法。在此基础上，采用层次分析模型和启发式优化技术，确定在何时，对何种情况采用何种措施，才能逐年达到指定的路网服务水平，而总费用又为最小（最小化问题）；或在定额资金内，在何时，对何种情况，采用何种措施，才能达到最佳路网状况（最大化问题）。采取费用—效益边际分析法，对不同的投资分配方案和不同的养护修复方案进行效益分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to urban road characteristics ,an approach to pavement performance prediction and budget optimization are presented in the paper. The method of dynamicmodelling and adaptive algorithm for pavement performance prediction is proposed. On thisbasis,the hierarchic models and the heuristic techniques are used to optimize financial programming and project programming ,and the benefit-cost marginal analysis is used to evaluate and determine the benefits of different maintenance and rehabilitation strategies andschedules.更多还原