【摘要】 岩土工程位移预测与安全预报是支护监控设计的重要组成部分，本文从位移时序曲线的特征出发，提出并验证了用加速度作为状态识别判据的可行性。对于稳定的情况，讨论了用灰色系统ＧＭ（１，１）模型预测最终收敛位移；对于失稳的情况，建立了用割线角估算失稳时间的一般公式。更多还原

【Abstract】 displacement prediction and safe forecast of geotechnical engineering are important parts of supervision plan of support. Accolding to the feature of displacement--time curve, the possibility to use acceleration as factor of distinguishing the stute is suggested and is testified. The final displacement at stable state is predicted using GM(l, 1) model of gray system. At unstable state the formula of calculating unstable time using tangent angle is established.更多还原