【摘要】 从研究我国社会总产值、交通部门货物周转量年增长率及两者的弹性系数均呈周期性变化这一特有现象出发，探讨周期形成的机理，并构造相应的数学模型予以论证。在此基础上，求出我国铁路和其他运输方式在变动的运输市场中长期发展速度稳定值。更多还原

【Abstract】 On the basis of studying the specific phenomenon that our country s total output value of society and year growth rate of freight turnover in transportation departments aswell as their elastic coefficient have emerged all as a cyclic change,this thesis inquires intothe mechanism of the cycle forming,constructs and gives a proof of the corresponding mathematical model.Finally,this thesis calculates the long term stable value of railway and othertransportation patterns developing speed in a changeable transportation market of our country.更多还原