【摘要】 台风路径突变预报的准确率低，时效短。作者对台风路径突变诊断预报方法的技术原理作简介，并以９４０３号强热带风暴复杂路径的诊断预报为应用举例。统计评定１９９４年６－１０月１５个编号台风在预报研究区的诊断预报，２４与４８小时预报误差分别为１．０１与２．０７纬距，明显小于相应时次的国内外综合预报。此方法有对路径转折预报较灵敏，而对路往趋势预报较稳定的特色。更多还原

【Abstract】 An introduction to the diagnosis-prediction method of sudden change in Typhoon track and its test-results during June-October, 1994 has been made. The test results indicate that this method is sensible to the elements which cause track change suddenly and that its forecast for future path is uniform.更多还原