【摘要】 利用１次中强以上地震（Ｍ０≥４．７）发生后前６天地震序列的资料，对未来半年内是否可能发生相当（Ｍ＝Ｍ０±０．３）或更大的地震进行模糊聚类分析．根据３６个初选问题的Ｗａｌｌｅｎ评分，精选出１３项能突出表现地震序列的特征参数作为指标．应用模糊聚类的ＦＣＭ算法对地震序列进行分类，Ⅰ类为Ｍ０级中强震后６个月内还有震级为Ｍ≥Ｍ０－０．３级的地震发生；Ⅱ类为Ｍ０级中强震后６个月内无相当或更大的地震。以中国大陆地区１９６６年以来的４８次Ｍ０≥４．７级中强震序列资料建立震后判别模型，然后对近期发生的８次强震序列进行了外推检验。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,fuzzy cluster analysis is used to make sure whether there is to be an earthquake with M=M0± 0. 3 or even larger in half year by analyzing seismic sequence data 6 days ahead of one moderate strong earthquake (M0≥4. 7). According to Wallen’s evaluation, 13 out of 36 primary problems were selected as indexes of typical seismic sequence feature parameters. The seismic sequence has been classified by FCM algorithm of fuzzy cluster analysis, in detail,Class I refers to strong shock with M≥M0-0. 3 that occurred in 6 months after another strong earthquake of M0, while Class II is for earthquake with magnitude less than M0 6 months after the main shock. Postseismic discriminant model has been set up for 48 times of strong shocks sequences with M0= 4. 7 in the main continent of China since 1966 and extrapolation verification has been done for recent & times of strong seismic sequences.更多还原