【摘要】 本文从灰色系统的理论出发,在GM（1,1）灰色模型的基础上利用残差信息建立了单段函数残差辨识模型So=695.6422e^0.2604t+87.0665e^0.1194t—598.6487。综合评价表明,该模型的预测精度比原模型更高,具有实际应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the theory of grey systen, a model of single function residual identifiability wasset up as SD=695. 6244e 0.28041’+ 87.0665e0.11941?598. 6487 on the basis of GM (1, 1) model of thegrey system by using residual information. The comprehensive evaluation proved that the precisionof the model was higher than that of GM (1,1) model and had high value of application in epidemi- ology.更多还原