【摘要】 将地震活动图象方法推进到短临阶段有很大难度,目前国内外尚无明显进展。本研究在时间、空间、震级下限三维空间进行多窗口连续追踪扫描,与以往和他人不同的关键是选取适当的时间窗长T、空间窗长S、起始震级M₀的值域,而不是单值,在空间、时间、强度3个轴向进行稳定性检验,以获得稳定而又有序的演化图象为目标（不随M₀变化而变化）,找到了系统进入短临阶段的图象演化标志——中等地震平静、临震空区、显著地震、应力窗口效应、条块分布、逼近地震,并分别给出判据指标。 研究将分析时间序列的非线性动力学中的算法复杂性AC值、地震活动广义时间空间分维（D₁、D_s）引入地震活动短临阶段图象演化有序性研究,提出综合表征地震活动有序性新参量——演化指数YH。为这些有序性新参量的应用提供理论依据,设计了有断层和硬块体存在的地震细胞自动机模型。 上述全部研究对国内20—26个强震震例进行了回顾和展望性检验。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is quite difficult to apply the seismicity pattern in the short-term prediction, and at present it has no obvious progress at home and abroad. In this study, the successive tracking scanning is used in time-space-magnitude 3 dimension windows. The key difference from others lies in selecting the domains,including length of time (T), space (S) and magnitude (M0)) rather than single value. The stability is checked in time-space-magnitude 3 dimension windows, and the aim is to get the stable and ordered evolutionary pattern (not changed with M0). The authors have found the sign of pattern evolution when the system reached the short-term stage: moderate earthquake quiescence, impending earthquake gap, significant earthquake, stress window effect, piece-strip distribution, approximating earthquake, and the criteria are given.The algorithm complexity AC value in analyzing the time series of non-linear dynamics and generalized space-time fractional dimension ( Dt, Ds) of seismicity are applied to the study on seismicity pattern evolution and orderliness, and new parameter, i.e. the evolutionary index YH, is proposed for synthetically describing the seismicity pattern. The authors design the seismic cell automatic model containing faults and stiff blocks. This provides the theoretical basis for application of those new orderliness parameters.20-26 strong earthquake examples occurred within the country are checked in this study.更多还原