【摘要】 在国家地震局“八五”攻关二级课题研究的基础上,概述了中期(1—3a)地震预报的思路、方法和有关预报指标体系的部份内容,认为:①具有物理基础的统计预报方法仍然是中期地震预报的有效途径,但应强调其科学性、合理性及应用的正确性。②非线性科学的兴起及由此而产生的一些方法可以应用到中期地震预报上,进而推进了地震预测科学。③由于地震活动的区域性,我国各主要地震区中期预报指标体系在具有共性的基础上各具特殊性,应用中应针对具体情况灵活而论。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper presents the medium-term prediction ideas, methods and part of the system of prediction criteria, based on the secondary key task during the eighth-five years’ plan. Three conclusions have been drawn as follows: 1. The physical statistical methods are still efficient approaches to the medium-term prediction, but they should be used scientifically, reasonably and correctly. 2. Non-linear science and its relative methods might be applied to the medium-term prediction to promote the earthquake prediction study. 3. Because of the regional difference of seismicity, the criterion system of medium-term prediction in different regions in China possesses their specific characteristics with some common features. The flexibility should be taken in the practice.更多还原