【摘要】 文中用实测资料和构造物理学观点论证了华北中、强地震前孕震形变场(断层活动系统)的存在和它的运动学与力学机制,并用有限元法加以检验;讨论了形变场、源前兆之间的关系和它们的前兆特征;给出了可操作的剪切破裂指标S(t),用断层滑动速度和剪切应变速度较好地表达了某地的地震破裂危险性;最后,提出了华北形变场活动的长期稳定性和周期性(约12年)。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the observed data and tectonophysics, the existence of seismogenic deformation field precursor (the faulting system) before moderate and strong earthquakes in North China was demonstrated, it’s kinetics and mechanics were proposed and examined by the method of finite element; the relation between deformation field and source precursors and their features were discussed; the operatable shear rupture index S(t) was given, using the observed data of faulting activity and shear strain rates,the earthquake rupture risk in a certain place could be well expressed;finally, the long-term stability and the cyclicity of the activity of deformation field in North China (about 12 vears) was found.更多还原