【摘要】 通过对华北地区中强地震(指M_s≥5.5的地震)发生时间不均匀性的研究结果表明:自1815年以来,该区可划分为5个中强地震集中活跃时段。可用灰色系统理论和方法建立灰色预测模型,预测未来一个活跃时段的起止时间。如果发生在活跃时段内的中强地震的发生时间呈较好的线性趋势变化,则可用二次指数平滑方法进行预测。在此基础上,本文还对它的预测精度作了估计。更多还原

【Abstract】 We consider that the North China has experienced 5 time periods of the moderately strong earthquakes, through analyzing temporal non-uniformity of moderately strong earthquake occurrence. By using the grey system theory and method, we built a grey prediction model to predict the start and end of an active time period in future. Because the tendency of the occurrence time of moderately strong earthquakes in the active time period is of a linear character, we suggest that a second power exponential smoothing method could be used to predict the time. Based on this, this paper also extimate the precision of earthquake prediction.更多还原