【摘要】 提出一种负荷预测的新方法．以负荷历史数据为依据建立模糊时序模型，考虑季节性演变和季节性变动因子，即可作年负荷和逐月负荷预测．引入标准拟合度和模糊度两个互不相容的参数分析负荷的增长趋势．这种带有可能范围的模糊时序模型不仅可以成功地预测负荷，且可以给出预测值的准确程度。更多还原

【Abstract】 A new method of electrical load forecast is given in this paper.It is used to estabhehfuzzy time series model based on historian data.This model can be used to foreals yakly andmonthly-load with considering the edict of seasonal evolution (seasonal gradual variation) andseasonal change factor. Besides, this method uses standard fitting deared and fozry degree two parameters un-allowablc each other, to analyse growing tendency of electrical load. This fuzzy timeseries model can be successfully used to forecast electrical load.更多还原