【摘要】 本文提出了一个地震灾害预测的动态分析模型。这个模型基于概率理论基础,考虑了一个城市因建设的发展,新房屋日益增多,部分旧房屋被淘汰,对城市抗震能力引起的变化;和由于经济的发展,社会财富的增加,对地震损失的影响。为解决这—问题,文中提出了动态震害矩阵和动态损失矩阵的求解方法。根据这一方法可以预测未来不同年代的地震经济损失。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, a dynamic model for predicting earthquake disaster losses is presented. In which, the variation of asismic capability in a city that caused by development of construction such as new buildings on the increase, old buildings on the decrease and social wealth on the increase due to the economic development are considered. In order to solve this problem, the method solved dynamic earthquake damage matrix and dynamic loss matrix is developed. The earthquake losses in the future any year may be predicted by the method as mentioned in this paper.更多还原