【摘要】 本文根据1953—1990年赣榆县疟疾疫情资料,用半对数坐标作出流行曲线图.图示有三个明显的谷点和峰点.峰与峰周期间隔平均为10±0.5年,谷与谷周期间隔平均为10年左右.用经济水平法处理,谷与峰周期的升速分别为530.98%、178.67%和36.92%,峰与谷周期的降速分别为-36.87%、-65.84%、-71.27%.结果提示,在疟疾流行高峰年份,需经6年左右的积极防治,才能控制疫情,而在疫情较低年份,若放松防治措施,只需4年左右,疟疾疫情将会出现明显回升.更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the data of malarial epidemie situation of Gaiyu from 1953 to 1990, the curve pattern of prevelence was made with the semi-logarithm coordinate. It showed three prominant valley-points and three peaks. The average interval between 2 peaks was 10±5 years,and the average interval between 2 valley-points was about 10 years. Using the method of economie analysis, it showed that the rising speed from valley to peak periods were 530. 93%, 178.67% and 36. 92%; and the falling speed from peak to valley periods were 36. 87% ,65.84% and 71. 27%. The result showed that in years with prevalent malarial infec-tion,it took 6 years to control the epidemie situation with active control and chemothrapy. In years with lower prevalence,if active control measures were neglected,in about four years the prevalence rose again .This article discussed the causes for formation of valley and peak points of malarial prevalence and the forecast of epidemie situation, which provided the theoretical basis for control malarial prevalence in Gaiyu.更多还原