【摘要】 ２０００年中国轿车保有量与我国石油需求量密切相关。本文提出一种国际类比预测方法，即根据轿车保有量与人均ＧＮＰ之间存在的普遍规律，预测２０００年中国轿车保有量。计算结果说明这种预测方法和模型是合理的、有效的。预测结果对我国能源需求预测有重要意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Quantity of cars in China in 2000 years is closely related to the demand quantity of oil in our cauntry. A method of international analogy for forecasting is advancld in this paper. that is to say,this method forecasts possession quantity of cars in China according to existent universal law between the possession quatity of cars and per capita GNP in the country.Com- puting resrlt shows that this forecasting method and model are resonable and effictive.Fore- casting result is momentous significancl for the forecasting of energy resources demand in our country.更多还原