【摘要】 本文将预测过程模拟成一个“模糊控制系统”,以预测因子作为系统的输入,预测量作为系统的输出。先根据历史资料确定系统的特性,建立预测模型;然后,在一定输入条件下,通过系统特性的作用,即可求得预报输出。这一模型本质上属语言控制模型,不需要知道输入量与输出量之间的函数关系,与经典的数学模型相比更具有广泛的适应性,文中用某地1977～1987年的流脑发病资料建立模型,对该地1988～1991四年的流脑年发病率进行预测,收到了良好效果,实际年发病率均在预测区间内。更多还原

【Abstract】 The predictive process is imitated as a "Fuzzy Control "system which input is the independent factors and the output is predicted value in this paper. First, based on history data, the characteristic system is determined and predictive model is established. Then under a particular input condition the predictive output can be abtained under effect of the characteristic system. This model intrinsically belongs to the language control model. The function relationship between the input and the output unnecessarily is known. It has more extensive adaptability than the classical mathematics models. The annual incidence rate of the epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis in 1988 - 1991 in a certain area has been predicted with the model which was established on the incidence data of same disease in 1977 - 1987 in that area. The predictive result is good. The actual annual incidence rate are totally within the predictive interval.更多还原