【摘要】 池塘是一个复杂的生态系统,溶解氧是描述该系统的重要参数之一。池塘溶解氧呈24小时周期连续变化,因而可用时间序列分析的方法来建立池塘溶解氧的ARMA(p,q)模型。通过一个实例,阐明了建模的原理、步骤、模式识别方法和模型参数的估计过程,建立的模型与实测数据拟合良好,并可用于池塘溶解氧的实时预报。表明该方法与其它方法相比,具有简捷、实时性好、精度较高、适合于用计算机实现对多个池塘的溶解氧的动态监测和管理等特点。更多还原

【Abstract】 A pond is a complex ecosystem. Each factor in the system must be surveyed and supervised dynamically to increase the production and lower the cost of aquiculture. The dissolved oxygen (DO) is one of the important parameters describing pond ecosystem. DO changes continuously with a period of 24 hours,so that the ARMA(p,q) model of pond DO may be founded by the method of time series analysis. The modeling principle and steps were explained with an example, and the model, which is founded by the method of pattern recognition with autocorrelation function and model parameters is estimated by the least square method. Results fit well with real measurement and can be used as real-time forecast of pond DO. Compared with other methods,this method is simple, well real-time, highly accurate and has the characteristics of dynamic survey and supervision of multi -ponds DO suitable to be used with computer.更多还原