【摘要】 应用极值理论、马尔科夫过程、震级－频度关系等６种方法，分别对汾渭地震带地震发生的规律性进行了讨论，各种方法取得了比较一致的预测效果。经计算得到：汾渭地震带今后５年内，有可能发生Ｍｓ＝５．０级左右的地震，发生Ｍｓ＞５．５级地震的可能性较小；Ｍｓ＝５．０、５．５级地震的复发周期分别为６年和２５年左右；自１３００年以来．其５．０级以上的地震活动存在着２３０±１０年的卓越周期。更多还原

【Abstract】 Six methods,such as maximum theory,Malkov process and magnitude-frequency relation etc.,have been used to discuss the laws of earthquake occurrence in Fen-Wei seismic zone.They have quite coincident prediction.That is,in five years,there is a possibility of occuring earthquake with Ms = 5.0,but less with Ms>5.5;There are repetition intervals of 6 years of earthquakes with Ms=5.0 and 25 years of earthquakes with Ms=5.5,respectively;There have been optimal period of 230±10 years of earthquakes with Ms≥5.0 since 1 300.更多还原