【摘要】 通过应用灰色系统理论和方法，对彭泽县1960～1986年第三代棉红铃虫百株孵量构成的离散数列进行数据处理，用微分方程进行拟合，并建立棉红铃虫灰色系统GM（1，1）长期灾变预测模型：x（t）＝53．60952e0.17851（i-1）1.97246e0.03736（i-1）－3．56687e－0.19052（i－1）－46.93949。应用该模型进行回测和预测，回测符合率可达100％，1987～1991年的预测结果与实况相吻合。更多还原

【Abstract】 Grey-system theory and method were used in this study. After the discrete data composed by 100-plant egg amount of the third generation of P. gosstypiella in Pengze, Jiangxi province during the years of 1960 ~1986 were processed and simulated with differential equation, a long-term predictive model GM(1,1 ) of grey catastrophe was set up as X(t)=53.60952e0.17815(i-1) +1.97246e0.0373(i-1) - 3.56687e-0.19052(i-5) - 46.93949. The coincidence rate of model forecast with historic data came to 100% in test. Years in which pink bollworm would heavily occur in Pengze during 1987~2000 are predicted in the paper. The forecasted results for 1987 ~ 1991 are completely coincided with the actual occurrence of the pest in each year.更多还原