【摘要】 本文分析了形变及重磁异常形成的机理,研究了其场兆及源兆的区别,认为形变及重磁异常的空间及时间分布特征,可以以断层活动闭锁区的形成及发展来解释。依据与实际资料符合较好的断层闭锁区及震前地下物质上涌的论点,得出活动断层的闭锁区及重磁异常集中的地区为强震发生地点的结论,提出了半年至几年尺度强震危险区判定的具体依据和步骤。当危险区内处于闭锁的断层发生预位移,该断层附近出现集中的重磁异常,表明强震即将发生。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper has been analyzed the formation mechanism of the anomalies of deformation, gravity and geomagnetism, and the difference of field precursor and source precursor as well. It is thought that space and time distribution characteristics of deformation, gravity and geomagnetism anomalies can be explained by the formation and delelopment of locked zones of active faults. Based on the locked zones of the faults and preseismic upwelling of subsurface materials, which better explained the actual data, it could be concluded that the locked zones of the active faults and the concentrated zones of gravity and geomagnetism anomalies are the sites of strong earthquake occurrence. The detailed basis and procedure to determine the risk zones of strong earthquakes within half a year to several years are put forward.When the predisplacements appear along the locked fault segments within the risk zones, and the concentrated gravity and geomagnetic anomalies appear near the fault segments with predisplacements, the strong earthquake is likely to come up.更多还原