【摘要】 本文简要地介绍了加卸载响应比理论用于地震预报的进展。对大量国内外地震的震例的检验(震级从M_L4到M_S8)表明80％以上震例在主震发生前加卸载响应比(以符号Y表示)均明显上升;同时选择了中国大陆7个近期无大震、强震,但小震资料却比较丰富的地区,研究了这些地区从1970年到1992年的加卸载响应比,7个地区的Y值在这23年间始终保持稳定,只在1左右作微小的起伏。利用加卸载响应比理论进行地震预测也取得较好的效果,这几年内先后在震前预测了1991年3月26日山西大同地震(M_S6.1),1993年1月27日云南普洱地震(M_S6.3)等4次国内M≥6的地震以及1994年1月17日的美国北岭地震(M_W6.7)。更多还原

【Abstract】 The development in the application of the loat-unload response ratio theory to earthquake perdiction is briefly introduced in this paper. The examination of the numerous cases of earthquakes (occurred at home and abroad with the magnitudes ranging from Ms 4 to Ms 8) shows that the load-unload response ratio Y value increases obviously before over eighty percent of these cases. In addition, seven regions with stable crust are selected to analyze the variation of their Y values with time from 1970 to 1992. The results show that the Y value of these seven stable regions fluctuates slightly around 1. In recent years several events have been predicted beforehand by means of the load-unlosd response ratio, such as the Datong earthquake (MS6.1 March 26, 1991, Shanxi Province), the Pu’er earthquake (MS6.3, Jan. 27, 1993, Yunnan Province), and so on, as well as the Northridge earthquake (MW6.7, Jan. 17, 1994, U.S.A).更多还原