【摘要】 本文着眼于地震活动总体特征,定义了地震演化指数YH。首先简要给出其概念与计算方法,然后以近年来资料较齐全的东部6.0级、西部6.5级以上的强震为例,研究了地震演化指数YH作为短临前兆的特征,并以展望性孕震空区为背景,对YH值进行了展望性分析。结果表明:YH值升高是强震孕育后期的重要特征。为从机理上证明和深入研究演化指数YH值作为短临前兆特证,我们利用带断层的地震细胞自动机模型模拟强震孕育发生的过程,并用YH值分析了模拟强震的震兆。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, seismic evolution index, YH-value was defined in terms of the overall characteristics of seismicity. The concept and computation of YH- value were briefly introduced at first. Then based on the data of complete strong earthquake with Ms > 6.0 in the recent years in Eastern China and those with Ms>6.5 in Western China, the charateristics of YH-value as the short-term and imminent precursors has been studied. For the perspective seismogenic gaps in the region studied here, the variation of the YH- value is analyzed. The results show that YH-value increase is important features in the later stage of strong earthquake preparation. Finally, in order to further understand the mechanism of the features of YH-value as the short-term and imminent precursors, we use the cellular automation model with faults to imitate the earthquake prepration process, and analyze the earthquake precursors produced by the modelling strong earthquake by using YH-value.更多还原