【摘要】 本文对我国近几年强震活动趋势估计出现高预报和低活动的原因进行了探讨。从全球和中国大陆地震活动的反相关关系以及1985年以来中国大陆地震活动的基本特点和自律节奏分析得出:(1)中国大陆近期连年发生7级以上强震的活动期尚未到来;(2)目前的低水平活动状态不会突变;(3)近期的趋势应注意西藏、四川、云南的地震活动增强。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper discussed the cause of the higher prediction and lower activity in re -cent estimations of the strong earthquake tendency in the mainland of China. From the antirelation between the mainland and other localities of the globe, the essential seismic features since 1985 and the self-rhythm of earthquakes, authors reached the following conclusions:1. Period for occurrence of M≥7.0 earthquakes in the mainland has not come;2. Low level stage of seismic activity will not be suddenly changed;3. As for the future tendency in 1993, more attention should be paid to the increase of the earthquake intensity, especially in Tibet, Sichuan and Yunnan.更多还原