【摘要】 暴雨洪水是威胁人类安全最常见的一种自然现象,特别是特大暴雨所形成的山洪、泥石流,给人们生命安全及财产造成巨大损失.本文针对暴雨降水量大、强度大、范围广的特点.通过对国内外大量高空地面资料进行分析与探索.采用统计分析与成因分析相结合的方法,寻求大气环流异常指标,探讨其发生发展运动规律.文中选用了发生暴雨洪水前期亚欧500百帕大气环流指标作为研究暴雨洪水背景预报的主要物理量. 文中用大量图表实例说明了该方法的可行性与实用性.经过多年实践认识到,要作好预见期较长的暴雨洪水预报,必须结合本地区水文气象特征进行多学科密切合作,充分发挥技术群体优势.文中认为对异常暴雨洪水进行预报是可能的.更多还原

【Abstract】 Cloudburst-flood is the most common natural phenomina which could menace the securi-ty of humen being,especially mountain torrent and debris flow formed by catastrophic rain-storm make heavily damage to human being.Through statistical analysis and formationcourse analysis,according to the characteristics of heavy preciptation,strong intensity,ex-tensive area,and analysis of data of atmosphere and ground in home and abroad abnormal in-dex of atmospheric circulation was sought and its occurence and development regularity wasdiscuss.We choose atmospheric circulation 500hpa at prestage of cloudburst in Asia—Eu-rope as to be main physical volume to forecast cloudburst flood. Many charts and events were used to illustrate feasibility and applicability of themethod.The paper suggests that it is possible to forecast flood caused by cloudburst if thescientists in different areas closely cooperate and observe hydrological and meteorologicalcharacteristics.更多还原