【摘要】 本文以 EOF 方法为基础,对北半球50hpa 位势高度距平场与赤道东太平洋海温场之间的关系进行了分析指出,当前期冬季50hpa 高纬地区位势高度较常年偏高(低),中纬地区偏低(高)时,对应着赤道东太平洋地区当年5月及9～11月海温较常年偏低(高),而7月120W 以东大部分地区偏高(低),120W 以西大部分地区则偏低(高).并表明,前期冬季 50hpa位势高度距平场的变化对厄尔尼诺及反厄尔尼诺事件的发生有预报出示意义.交叉谱计算发现,赤道东太平洋海温场与50hpa 场在周期2～3.2年的频带上凝聚谱达最大.更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,we analysed the 50hpa potential height anomaly field innorthern hemisphere by using the EOF method,and studied its correlationwith the SST in the Eastern Equatorail Pacific.we pointed out,(i)when50hpa potential height in high latitude last winter is higher(or lower),and when that height in mid-latitude is lower or higher than that of thenormal year.in May and September-November in the year the SST in EasternEquatorial Pacific is lower(or higher)than that of the normal year,andin July higher(or lower in most of the regions to the east of 120°w andlower(or higher)in most of the regions to the west of 120°w.(ii)Thevariation of 50hpa height anomaly field in winter time is significant obviouslyindicates the occuring of EL Nino/anti-EL Nlno.(iii)The abnormalityis closely related with the 50hpa circulation field in northern hemisphereand the SST field in Eastern Equatorial Pacific.The coagulation spectrumis maximum at frequency band of 2—3.2 year period.Moreover,we also gave a preliminary theoretic analysis of the aboveobservational results.更多还原