【摘要】 以复合随机点过程为依据,针对洪水风险率HSPPB模型之不足,结合洪水的超定量多次选样序列,探讨了一类新的洪水频率分析模型——HSPPC模型。结合长江中上游百余年的实测洪水和近千年的调查历史洪水资料,用HSPPC模型对某水利枢纽工程的洪水频率进行了计算分析.结果表明,HSPPC模型是一种切实可行的洪水频率分析模型,与传统的模型相比,在应用上具有更大的灵活性和适用性.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the flood exceeded series, a kind of flood frequency model-HSPPC model is developed by using the compound stochastic point process theory to-be aimed at the shortcomings of flood risk HSPPB model. Combined with the measured flood data in hundred years and investigated flood data in thousand years in the middle-and upper areas of the Yangtze River, the flood frequency of a large-scale water conservancy project is calculated and analyzed by using the HSPPC model. The result shows that HSPPC model is a kind of suitable one for flood frequency analysis, which is more flexible and more adaptable as compared with the traditional flood risk model.更多还原