【摘要】 本文对一类具有一般性质的周期性非平稳水文时间序列的建模提出一种随机向量模型及建模方法,讨论了这种随机向量模型的辨识和参数估计问题,并对红水河的龙滩、天生桥、大藤峡、岩滩水文站分别建立了月平均流量随机数据,分别产生了200年月平均流量随机数据,以历史序列和人工序列的统计值(均值、标准差、变差系数、偏态系数、相关系数)的比较作为判别模型优劣的依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper presents a stochastic vecter model and modeling method and discusses the estimation of the parameters and the discrimination of the stochastic vecter model. The stochastic vecter models are established for the monthly mean flow of four stations on the Hongshui River respectively, and the radom data of the mothly mean flow of 200 years are generated respectively. The statistical characteristic values of the original series are compared with those of the artificial series.更多还原