【摘要】 本文通过建立GM(1,1)及残差修正的整体模型,对奥运会后续四届(第二十五——二十八届)的田径项目运动成绩进行预测,并对预测结果进行关联度和和后验差检验,绝大部分项目的精度在97％以上。另外,采用指数平滑法对原始数据进行修匀后再预测,结果更理想。更多还原

【Abstract】 This essay aims to make a forecast for the achievement of Track and Field sports in the next faur Qlympic Games (the 25th-the 28th)by establishing the GM( 1. 1 )pattern and a solid patterm of residue a mendment, and makesa verifira-tion of correlation degree and after working error, most of the items are over 97 percent in term of accuracy degree. Moreover, if smoothing the primary data by exponential smoothing before forecasting with the" patterns mentioned above, the result is more successful.更多还原