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农业自然资源利用方式的马尔可夫链模型——以山西省吕梁地区为例

A Markov Chain Model of Utilization Patterns of Agronatural Resources-With Luliang Prefecture of Shaanxi Province as Example

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【作者】 吴登茹

【Author】 WU Dengru(Geography Research Institute of Axademia Sinica and National Planning Commission,Beijing100101)

【机构】 中科院国家计委地理研究所 北京100101

【摘要】 采用马尔可夫链分析模型,以山西省吕梁地区为例,对资源利用方式和资源质量的组合状态与作物产量的关系进行了探讨。结果表明:在黄土丘陵沟壑类型区,在少雨情况下,对资源的利用可采取低投入的方式,这样获得的收益反而比高投入合算。在降水正常,尤其是多雨情况下,则应采取高投入的方式。在平原台地类型区,由于无论是少雨或降水正常年份,还是在多雨年份,高投入比低投入获得的产量高得多。

【Abstract】 With Luliang prefecture in shanxi province as example,A Markov model analysis isused to discuss the resource utilization patterns and component states of resource quali-ties as well as relations of crop yields.The results show that low input patterns of re-source utilization can be used in the case of little rainfall in the loess hilly and gully re-gion.By so doing benefits obtained is much more economical than that under high inputpatterns.In the case of normal rainfall,with much rainfall in particular,high input pat-tern should be adopted.In the plain and tableland area with whether less rainfall year,normal rainfall year or much rainfall year,the yield obtained from high inputs can bemuch higher than that from low inputs.

  • 【文献出处】 干旱地区农业研究 ,Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas , 编辑部邮箱 ,1992年03期
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