【摘要】 1988年在大兴安岭对黑胸球果花蝇(Strobilomyia melaniola)的种群动态进行了研究。黑胸球果花蝇的种群变动主要受球果产量波支的制约。对每头幼虫,如果有一个球果可供危害。种群将保持稳定;如果每头幼虫可供危害的球果增加或减少,幼虫的种群将相应的增加或下降。在这个结论的基础上,建立了种群动态预测模型。对8个林分的球果被害率进行预测。同时使用Roques A.提供的黄色胶纸诱捕器进行危害预测,效果也很好。利用历史记载的资料,通过马尔柯夫链转移概率分析可达到长期预测的目的。更多还原

【Abstract】 In 1988, we studied the population dynamics of S. melaniola in Daxinganling Mts.The population is mainly regulated by cone products. If each larva has one available cone, the population will keep balance; if the available cone for each larva rises or reduces, the population will correspondently increase or reduce. According to this conclusion, we estblished forecasting model of population dynamics to predict the damaged cone percentage in 8 larch stands. It is effective to use yellow-glue paper trapper provided by Alain Roques to predict the damaged percentage. Using past recorded data, we conducted longterm forecast by transition probability analysis of Markov chain.更多还原