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余度结构故障概率计算的一种方法

A METHOD FOR THE EVALUATION OF FAILURE PROBABILITY IN REDUNDANT STRUCTURES

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【作者】 安伟光蔡荫林

【Author】 An Weiguang Cai Yinlin (Harbin Shipbuilding Engineering Institute)

【机构】 哈尔滨船舶工程学院哈尔滨船舶工程学院

【摘要】 在一个余度结构中,有多种破坏模式,要精确计算结构的故障概率是复杂的。本文则根据限界准则和被删出的故障模式对结构故障概率最大贡献的公式,求得结构故障概率的上下限,简单地求得结构故障概率。为说明此方法的有效性,提出了数值例子。

【Abstract】 There exist many failure models in a redunant structure, it is rather complicated to calculate precisely the failure probability in a structure. In this paper, a simple method is proposed to evaluate the failure probability in structures. Based on the bounding criterion and the formulation of the maximum contribution of the excluded failure modes to the structure failure probability, the lower and upper bounds of failure probability are estimated by branching and bounding operations selecting only the dominant failure modes to complete the calculation of failure probability in a structure. A numerical example is provided to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method.

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