【摘要】 本文从信息量的角度出发,研究了大震发生前后小震序列的时空分布特征,定义了缺信息量Ⅰ_Q值来反映这种分布所隐含的未来大震的异常信息。并以海城、唐山、和林格尔及玛纳斯地震为例,分析了这几次中强地震发生前后Ⅰ_Q值的动态变化。结果表明:在地震发生前,均出现了显著的Ⅰ_Q低值异常过程。本文认为,Ⅰ_Q值能定量地表现出大震发生前小震活动时空分布的各种异常信息,分析和观测Ⅰ_Q值的变化对未来大震的监测预报不失为一种有效手段。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, we have researched the space-time distribution characteristics of small earthquakes sequence before and after large earthquakes from information amount, and defined lack information amount I_Q value to reflect the distribution which hides the anomalous information of large earthquake in future. As some examples of the Haicheng, Tangshan, Helingeer and Manasi earthquakes, we have analysed the dynamic variations of I_Q values before and after these strong earthquakes.The results show that the I_Q value had appeared notable low value phenomena before the strong earthquakes took place. We believed that I_Q value can quantitatively describe the information of various phenomena patterns of the seismic space-time distribution before large earthquake. It is a good way to monitor and forecast large earthquake.更多还原