【摘要】 本文探讨了非线性水文系统建模问题,并提出一种基于惩罚函数准则和正交展式的有约束非线性系统(CNLS)识别技术。该方法已应用到我国8个不同流域日和小时的降雨-径流的模拟和预报,效果令人满意。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper focuses a nonlinear rainfall—runoff model described by Voltcrra functional series. A realistic and workable system identification method is sought in terms of a penalty function and Meixner orthogonal polynomials, which can deal with three common problems in hydrological modelling and forecasting,namely: (1) instability of the sysytem identification, (2) unconstrained estimation principle which possibly leads to conceptually unreasonable negative value of unit hydrograph, (3)nonlinearity of runoff forecasting particular in flood peaks. Preliminary examinations by using both daily and hourly rainfall—runoff data of several catchments in China indicate that this approach is of practical significance.更多还原