【摘要】 本文采用上海16年（1970—1985年）逐日平均气压资料,用相空间延拓的方法,计算了它的关联维D和Kalmogorov熵的近似值二阶Renyi嫡K₂。得到D=7.7～7.9,为分数值,K₂约为0.1,是一正数值。证明我国季风区短期天气吸引子是一种浑沌运动。由K₂数值直接估计可预报时间T=（1K₂）约为十天,与早期动力统计学方法所得的可预报时间尺度相一致。 本文计算中,考察了相空间拓展时延滞τ的效应。计算结果表明:关联维D和K₂对τ均是收敛的。对本文所用上海逐日平均气压序列,用延滞τ=5延拓的相空间,各坐标分量是相互独立的,系统动力学特征量是稳定可靠的。更多还原

【Abstract】 The 1970-1985 daily-averaged pressure dataset of Shanghai is used to calculate its associated dimension D and the second-order Reiyi entropy, K2, as the approximation of Kolmogorov’ s entropy, in terms of the phase space continuation, indicating the fractional dimension D = 7. 7-7. 9 and positive Kz 0. 1. This shows that the attractor for the short-term weather evolution in the monsoon region of China exhibits a choatic motion. The direct estimate of K2 yields a roughly 10-day scale of the lead time T= (1/K2) ,a result which is in agreement with that obtained earlier by the dynamic-statistical approach.Examined during the continuation of phase space is the effect of the lag time t. Calculations show that D and K2 are convergent with respect to t. The daily averaged pressure series employed are treated by the continuation of phase space with t=5, with the coordinate components independent of each other, and the dynamically characteristic quantity of the system is found stable and thus reliable.更多还原