【摘要】 本文调试出一个含有冻雨过程的以暖雨过程为主的一维半非常定暴雨云降水预报模式。提出了用卫星图象、常规探空等实测资料与该云模式相结合的途径来作长江中游暖季暴雨云及其降水量的短期预报和超短期预报的试验方法。试验结果显示:两类暴雨模式云的不同演变过程及其相应的主要特征,与长江中游暖季经常出现的两类自然暴雨云大体一致,用卫星图象、暴雨云降水预报模式预报长江中游暖季暴雨雨量是可行的。更多还原

【Abstract】 A one-and-a-half-dimensional nonsteady cloud model is de-signed for predicting the heavy rain cloud containing mainly the warmrain process accompanied by sleet. A short-and very short-range fore-casting method is proposed for the heavy rain cloud and its rainfall overthe middle reaches of the Changjiang River during the warm season byusing the satellite imagery and routine sounding data combined with themodel. Results show that the evolution processes of the two types ofthe model clouds and their features resemble in the main those of thetwo types of the natural heavy rain clouds, suggesting that the methodis feasible for the purpose.更多还原