【摘要】 本文应用系统动力学建模原理,对吉林省森工系统的后备森林资源经营子系统进行了模拟和仿真,通过四种经营方案的仿真结果得出了三点结论:(1)如果系统维持现状,则其可利用成过熟林资源将在2015年左右枯竭,由于后备森林资源经营措施跟不上,生长量低,因而木材生产将在21世纪中叶才能得以恢复,这必将对国民经济产生较大影响;(2)依靠单纯扩大造林面积,但保存率不高的做法,不仅不能解决森工企业的资源危机,而且浪费国家大量资财,那种为挽救森林资源而盲目扩大造林面积的作法不足取;(3)本系统走出"困境"的根本出路在于调整生产布局,把重点转移到对现有后备幼壮林的抚育改造,管理和提高上,积极采取措施扭转集中过量采伐局面,既要加强系统自身反馈的调控机能,同时国家如给予扶持政策,则对系统摆脱"两危",走向良性循环起推动作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 This article draws following three conclusions by applying the theory of SD, Known as lab of policy and decisions, to the prediction of researved forest resources of JiLin forest industries system. 1 The adult wood will be exausted by 2015, if this system keeps going without change, logging production will not be continued untill the middle of next century and this willproduce the bad effect on the National economy. 2 The measure only to increase the af forestation area could not sovle the problem of short resources and poor economic profits exist- ed among 17 forest enterprises of JiLin forest industries system. 3 The system issued~1 here could avoid of setback only if it pays much more attention to the intensive management, including teding fe- lling and improvement felling, of reserrved foret resources, meanwhile the control of final cutting yield and various kind of aid from the g- overment are also wery important.更多还原