【摘要】 本文以动力学原理为依据,结合低纬西太平洋南海地区热带气旋历史资料建立了一个预报南海海区热带气旋未来72小时路径的预报模式。模式只要求输入预报时刻和前期的热带气旋中心位置,最低气压和中心附近最大风速资料便可在IBM或类似的微机上作出未来72小时的路径预报。用统计样本外的6年历史资料作预报检验,6年的平均预报误差表明其预报精度已达一般客观预报水平。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the principle of dynamics and the historical data, a fo-recast model is designed in this paper for 72-hour prediction of the tracks of tropical cyclone over low latitude west pacific. By inputting the data of center position,maximum wind speed and minimum pressure of tropical cyclones at origin time and before the time, the tropical cyclone tracks in the following 72 hours can be forecasted by the model on a computer like IBM-PC,The 6-year mean error of the forecast,which was made with 6-year data except the model statistical samples, is much the same as operational objective prediction of the tracks.更多还原