【摘要】 本文追溯了应用历史地震预测澜沧—耿马大地震的原始依据与过程.作者据地震活动的大形势分析、强震在我国西南地区的重复性、澜沧—耿马地区地震的周期性和应变释放特征,结合近期的地震活动情况,于1984年提出:澜沧—耿马一带是未来10年内可能发生7级以上强震的危险区.作为历史事实:1988年11月6日云南澜沧7.6级地震与耿马7.2地震就发生在所预测的7级以上的危险区内.作为借鉴,作者提议:历史地震作为历史上已有的基本事实,在地震监测预报、工程抗震及在地震对策的研究中都应充分重视它的地位与作用.更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper reviews the original basis and the process to predict Lancang-Gengma earthquake making use of historical earthquake. According to the analysis of the general trend of the seismic activities in the area, the repetitiveness of strong shocks in southwestern China, and to the periodicity of earthquake recurrences and characteristics of strain release in the Lancang-Gengma area, and jointly considering the latest seismic activities in the area, the authors had predicted as early as in 1984 that Lancang-Gengma and its neighboring areas would potentially he an earthquake risk region with a event of M≥7 in forthcoming 10 years. The fact is that Lancang(M7.6 ) and Gengma earthquake ( M7. 2) really occurred in the region on November 6, 1988. As a lesson to learn from the fact, authors emphasize that historic earthquakes shoold be treated as basic and existing facts,and brought to notice in earthquake monitoring, perdiction, earthquake engineering and earthquake countermeasure studies.更多还原