【摘要】 本文提出了一种由地震区(带)的地震发生概率确定潜在震源区发震概率的概率分配模型。这一模型具有以下特点:1.地震区(带)的地震发生概率控制并确定了潜在震源区的发震概率,这一原则完全遵从概率论的基本原理;2.模型中用于描述地震发生过程的随机模型,对潜在震源区的发震概率不再起决定性作用,从而大大降低了由此而带来的不确定性。将概率分配模型与目前用于新的中国地震区划图编制工作中的地震平均年发生率分配方法进行了比较,结果表明,二者对华北地区的应用结果相差不大。但进一步的分析表明,当地震活动水平较高时,后一方法可能会低估潜在震源区的地震危险性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,a model of probablity distribution is built up,The characteristics of this model are as follows ;A. Seiectiting the probability of earthquakes occurring in seismic region or belt to control and determine that in potential source are,totally obeljing the basic probability theories;B. Probabilities model asumed to describe the process of earthquake occurrence within potential source area has only influence on comparing the relation risky degrees between sources,and then the uncertainties caused by the model are reduced. The comparison between the model and the methed used in compiling the New Seismic Zoning Map in China shows that the results obtained by the two methed are almost the same. However,the further analysis shows that the later one may lowerlly estimate the seismic hazard as the seismic activity level is higher.更多还原